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Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistenceand distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in airtemperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurateassessment of suitable thermal habitats in freshwater systems is critical forpredicting aquatic species' responses to changes in climate and for guidingadaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a streamtemperature model and downscaled general circulation model outputs toexplore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperaturefor the late 21st century at the subbasin and ecological province scalefor the Columbia River basin (CRB). On average, stream temperatures are projectedto increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for thesummer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for thewinter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlatedwith changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, andoften ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in streamtemperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermalsensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the coolingeffect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, suchas precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil water flow, and groundwaterinflow, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperaturedepending on the ecological province and season. At the ecological provincescale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within theMountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by migratorycoldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally withthe largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during thespring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate thatstream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require aphysically explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the habitatregulating the distribution and diversity of aquatic taxa

Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River basin: habitat implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers