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The 2012 drought was one of the most extensive drought events in half acentury, resulting in over USD 12 billion in economic loss in the UnitedStates and substantial indirect impacts on global food security and commodityprices. An important feature of the 2012 drought was rapid development andintensification in late spring/early summer, a critical time for cropdevelopment and investment planning. Drought prediction remains a majorchallenge because dynamical precipitation forecasts are highly uncertain, andtheir prediction skill is low. Using a probabilistic framework for droughtforecasting based on the persistence property of accumulated soil moisture,this paper shows that the US drought of summer 2012 was predictable severalmonths in advance. The presented drought forecasting framework provides theprobability occurrence of drought based on climatology and near-pastobservations of soil moisture. The results indicate that soil moistureexhibits higher persistence than precipitation, and hence improves droughtpredictability

A baseline probabilistic drought forecasting framework using standardized soil moisture index: application to the 2012 United States drought