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Diagnosing the impacts of climate change on water resources is a difficulttask pertaining to the uncertainties arising from the different modellingsteps. Lumped hydrological model structures contribute to this uncertaintyas well as the natural climate variability, illustrated by several membersfrom the same Global Circulation Model. In this paper, the hydroclimaticmodelling chain consists of twenty-four potential evapotranspirationformulations, twenty lumped conceptual hydrological models, and sevensnowmelt modules. These structures are applied on a natural Canadiansub-catchment to address related uncertainties and compare them to thenatural internal variability of simulated climate system as depicted by fiveclimatic members. Uncertainty in simulated streamflow under current andprojected climates is assessed. They rely on interannual hydrographs andhydrological indicators analysis. Results show that natural climatevariability is the major source of uncertainty, followed by potentialevapotranspiration formulations and hydrological models. The selectedsnowmelt modules, however, do not contribute much to the uncertainty. Theanalysis also illustrates that the streamflow simulation over the currentclimate period is already conditioned by the tools' selection. This uncertaintyis propagated to reference simulations and future projections, amplified byclimatic members. These findings demonstrate the importance of opting forseveral climatic members to encompass the important uncertainty related tothe climate natural variability, but also of selecting multiple modellingtools to provide a trustworthy diagnosis of the impacts of climate change onwater resources

hydrology and earth system sciences

Climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime of a Canadian river: comparing uncertainties arising from climate natural variability and lumped hydrological model structures