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Climate models project increases in globally averaged atmospheric specifichumidity that are close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) value of around 7% K−1whilst projections for mean annual global precipitation (P) andevaporation (E) are somewhat muted at around 2% K−1. Such globalprojections are useful summaries but do not provide guidance at local (gridbox) scales where impacts occur. To bridge that gap in spatial scale,previous research has shown that the "wet get wetter and dry get drier"relation, Δ(P − E) ∝ P − E, follows CC scaling when the projectedchanges are averaged over latitudinal zones. Much of the research on projected climate impactshas been based on an implicit assumption that this CC relation also holds atlocal (grid box) scales but this has not previously been examined. In thispaper we find that the simple latitudinal average CC scaling relation doesnot hold at local (grid box) scales over either ocean or land. This meansthat in terms of P − E, the climate models do not project that the "wet getwetter and dry get drier" at the local scales that are relevant foragricultural, ecological and hydrologic impacts. In an attempt to develop asimple framework for local-scale analysis we found that the climate modeloutput shows a remarkably close relation to the long-standing Budykoframework of catchment hydrology. We subsequently use the Budyko curve andfind that the local-scale changes in P − E projected by climate models aredominated by changes in P while the changes in net irradiance at the surfacedue to greenhouse forcing are small and only play a minor role in changingthe mean annual P − E in the climate model projections. To further understandthe apparently small changes in net irradiance we also examine projectionsof key surface energy balance terms. In terms of global averages, we findthat the climate model projections are dominated by changes in only threeterms of the surface energy balance: (1) an increase in the incominglong-wave irradiance, and the respective responses (2) in outgoing long-waveirradiance and (3) in the evaporative flux, with the latter change being muchsmaller than the former two terms and mostly restricted to the oceans. Thesmall fraction of the realised surface forcing that is partitioned into Eexplains why the hydrologic sensitivity (2% K−1) is so much smallerthan CC scaling (7% K−1). Much public and scientific perceptionabout changes in the water cycle has been based on the notion thattemperature enhances E. That notion is partly true but has proved anunfortunate starting point because it has led to misleading conclusionsabout the impacts of climate change on the water cycle. A better generalunderstanding of the potential impacts of climate change on wateravailability that are projected by climate models will surely be gained bystarting with the notion that the greater the enhancement of E, the less thesurface temperature increase (and vice versa). That latter notion is basedon the conservation of energy and is an underlying basis of climate model projections

A general framework for understanding the response of the water cycle to global warming over land and ocean