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The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) isimplemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R)and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with asimple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month ofJuly 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitationforecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improveprobabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lowerprecipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the gridscale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvementswhen forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greaterin conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convectiveprecipitation is likely to be less predictable

geoscientific model development

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)