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Climate change is profoundly transforming the carbon-rich Arctic tundralandscape, potentially moving it from a carbon sink to a carbon source byincreasing the thickness of soil that thaws on a seasonal basis. However,the modeling capability and precise parameterizations of the physicalcharacteristics needed to estimate projected active layer thickness (ALT)are limited in Earth system models (ESMs). In particular, discrepancies inspatial scale between field measurements and Earth system models challengevalidation and parameterization of hydrothermal models. A recently developedsurface–subsurface model for permafrost thermal hydrology, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), is used in combination with field measurementsto achieve the goals of constructing a process-rich model based on plausibleparameters and to identify fine-scale controls of ALT in ice-wedge polygontundra in Barrow, Alaska. An iterative model refinement procedure thatcycles between borehole temperature and snow cover measurements andsimulations functions to evaluate and parameterize different model processesnecessary to simulate freeze–thaw processes and ALT formation. After modelrefinement and calibration, reasonable matches between simulated andmeasured soil temperatures are obtained, with the largest errors occurringduring early summer above ice wedges (e.g., troughs). The results suggestthat properly constructed and calibrated one-dimensional thermal hydrologymodels have the potential to provide reasonable representation of thesubsurface thermal response and can be used to infer model input parametersand process representations. The models for soil thermal conductivity andsnow distribution were found to be the most sensitive processrepresentations. However, information on lateral flow and snowpack evolutionmight be needed to constrain model representations of surface hydrology andsnow depth

Using field observations to inform thermal hydrology models of permafrost dynamics with ATS (v0.83)