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Abstract. The subglacial bed topography is critical for modellingthe evolution of Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), whererapid ice loss threatens the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.However, mapping of subglacial topography is subject to uncertainties of upto hundreds of metres, primarily due to large gaps of up to tens ofkilometres in airborne ice-penetrating radar flight lines. Deterministicinterpolation approaches do not reflect such spatial uncertainty. Whiletraditional geostatistical simulations can model such uncertainty, theybecome difficult to apply because of the significant non-stationary spatialvariation of topography over such large surface area. In this study, wedevelop a non-stationary multiple-point geostatistical (MPS) approach tointerpolate large areas with irregular geophysical data and apply it tomodel the spatial uncertainty of entire ASE basal topography. We collect 166high-quality topographic training images (TIs) of resolution 500 m to trainthe gap-filling of radar data gaps, thereby simulating realistic topographymaps. The TIs are extensively sampled from deglaciated regions in the Arcticas well as Antarctica. To address the non-stationarity in topographicmodelling, we introduce a Bayesian framework that models the posteriordistribution of non-stationary TIs assigned to the local line data.Sampling from this distribution then provides candidate training images forlocal topographic modelling with uncertainty, constrained to radar flightline data. Compared to traditional MPS approaches that do not consideruncertain TI sampling, our approach results in a significant improvement inthe topographic modelling quality and efficiency of the simulation algorithm.Finally, we simulate multiple realizations of high-resolution ASEtopographic maps. We use the multiple realizations to investigate the impactof basal topography uncertainty on subglacial hydrological flow patterns.

Mapping high-resolution basal topography of West Antarctica from radar data using non-stationary multiple-point geostatistics (MPS-BedMappingV1)