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Abstract. The amount of additional future temperature change following a completecessation of CO2 emissions is a measure of the unrealized warming towhich we are committed due to CO2 already emitted to the atmosphere.This “zero emissions commitment” (ZEC) is also an important quantity whenestimating the remaining carbon budget – a limit on the total amount ofCO2 emissions consistent with limiting global mean temperature at aparticular level. In the recent IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of1.5 ∘C, the carbon budget framework used to calculate theremaining carbon budget for 1.5 ∘C included the assumption thatthe ZEC due to CO2 emissions is negligible and close to zero. Previousresearch has shown significant uncertainty even in the sign of the ZEC. Toclose this knowledge gap, we propose the Zero Emissions Commitment ModelIntercomparison Project (ZECMIP), which will quantify the amount ofunrealized temperature change that occurs after CO2 emissions cease andinvestigate the geophysical drivers behind this climate response.Quantitative information on ZEC is a key gap in our knowledge, and one thatwill not be addressed by currently planned CMIP6 simulations, yet it iscrucial for verifying whether carbon budgets need to be adjusted to accountfor any unrealized temperature change resulting from past CO2emissions. We request only one top-priority simulation from comprehensivegeneral circulation Earth system models (ESMs) and Earth system models ofintermediate complexity (EMICs) – a branch from the 1 % CO2 run withCO2 emissions set to zero at the point of 1000 PgC of total CO2emissions in the simulation – with the possibility for additionalsimulations, if resources allow. ZECMIP is part of CMIP6, under jointsponsorship by C4MIP and CDRMIP, with associated experiment names to enabledata submissions to the Earth System Grid Federation. All data will be publishedand made freely available.

geoscientific model development

The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions