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Here we present results from a long-term model simulation\udof the 3-D  coupled ecosystem model ECOSMO II for a North Sea and Baltic Sea\udset-up. The model allows both multi-decadal hindcast simulation of the marine\udsystem and specific process studies under controlled environmental\udconditions. Model results have been analysed with respect to long-term\udmulti-decadal variability in both physical and biological parameters with the\udhelp of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The analysis of a 61-year (1948–2008) hindcast reveals a quasi-decadal variation in\udsalinity, temperature and current fields in the North Sea in addition to\udsingular events of major changes during restricted time frames. These\udchanges in hydrodynamic variables were found to be associated with changes in\udecosystem productivity that are temporally aligned with the timing of\udreported regime shifts in the areas. Our results clearly indicate that\udfor analysing ecosystem productivity, spatially explicit methods are\udindispensable. Especially in the North Sea, a correlation analysis between\udatmospheric forcing and primary production (PP) reveals significant\udcorrelations between PP and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and wind forcing for the central part of the region,\udwhile the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and air temperature are correlated to long-term changes in PP in the\udsouthern North Sea frontal areas. Since correlations cannot serve to\udidentify causal relationship, we performed scenario model runs\udperturbing the temporal variability in forcing condition to emphasize\udspecifically the role of solar radiation, wind and eutrophication. The\udresults revealed that, although all parameters are relevant for the\udmagnitude of PP in the North Sea and Baltic Sea, the dominant impact on\udlong-term variability and major shifts in ecosystem productivity was\udintroduced by modulations of the wind fields

Low-frequency variability in North Sea and Baltic Sea identified through simulations with the 3-D coupled physical–biogeochemical model ECOSMO