English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is constrainedbased on observed near-surface temperature change, changes in ocean heatcontent (OHC) and detailed radiative forcing (RF) time series frompre-industrial times to 2010 for all main anthropogenic and natural forcingmechanism. The RF time series are linked to the observations of OHC andtemperature change through an energy balance model (EBM) and a stochasticmodel, using a Bayesian approach to estimate the ECS and other unknownparameters from the data. For the net anthropogenic RF the posterior mean in2010 is 2.0 Wm−2, with a 90% credible interval (C.I.) of 1.3 to2.8 Wm−2, excluding present-day total aerosol effects(direct + indirect) stronger than −1.7 Wm−2. The posterior meanof the ECS is 1.8 °C, with 90% C.I. ranging from 0.9 to3.2 °C, which is tighter than most previously published estimates. Wefind that using three OHC data sets simultaneously and data for global meantemperature and OHC up to 2010 substantially narrows the range in ECScompared to using less updated data and only one OHC data set. Using only oneOHC set and data up to 2000 can produce comparable results as previouslypublished estimates using observations in the 20th century, including theheavy tail in the probability function. The analyses show a significantcontribution of internal variability on a multi-decadal scale to the globalmean temperature change. If we do not explicitly account for long-terminternal variability, the 90% C.I. is 40% narrower than in the mainanalysis and the mean ECS becomes slightly lower, which demonstrates that theuncertainty in ECS may be severely underestimated if the method is toosimple. In addition to the uncertainties represented through the estimatedprobability density functions, there may be uncertainties due to limitationsin the treatment of the temporal development in RF and structuraluncertainties in the EBM

A lower and more constrained estimate of climate sensitivity using updated observations and detailed radiative forcing time series