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The global hydrologic cycle is likely to increase in strength with globalwarming, although some studies indicate that warming due to solar absorptionmay result in a different sensitivity than warming due to an elevatedgreenhouse effect. Here we show that these sensitivities of the hydrologiccycle can be derived analytically from an extremely simple surface energybalance model that is constrained by the assumption that vertical convectiveexchange within the atmosphere operates at the thermodynamic limit of maximumpower. Using current climatic mean conditions, this model predicts asensitivity of the hydrologic cycle of 2.2% K<sup>−1</sup> togreenhouse-induced surface warming which is the sensitivity reported fromclimate models. The sensitivity to solar-induced warming includes anadditional term, which increases the total sensitivity to 3.2% K<sup>−1</sup>.These sensitivities are explained by shifts in the turbulent fluxes in thecase of greenhouse-induced warming, which is proportional to the change inslope of the saturation vapor pressure, and in terms of an additionalincrease in turbulent fluxes in the case of solar radiation-induced warming.We illustrate an implication of this explanation for geoengineering, whichaims to undo surface temperature differences by solar radiation management.Our results show that when such an intervention compensates surface warming,it cannot simultaneously compensate the changes in hydrologic cycling becauseof the differences in sensitivities for solar vs. greenhouse-induced surfacewarming. We conclude that the sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to surfacetemperature can be understood and predicted with very simple physicalconsiderations but this needs to reflect on the different roles that solar andterrestrial radiation play in forcing the hydrologic cycle

earth system dynamics

A simple explanation for the sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to surface temperature and solar radiation and its implications for global climate change