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. Several major storms pounded western Europe in January 2018, generating large damages and casualties.The two most impactful ones,Eleanor and Friederike, are analysed here in the context of climate change.Near surface wind speed station observations exhibit a decreasing trend inthe frequency of strong winds associated with such storms. High-resolutionregional climate models, on the other hand, show no trend up to now and asmall increase in storminess in future due to climate change. This showsthat factors other than climate change, which are not in the climatemodels, caused the observed decline in storminess over land. A large part isprobably due to increases in surface roughness, as shown for a small set ofstations covering the Netherlands and in previous studies. This observedtrend could therefore be independent from climate evolution. We concludedthat human-induced climate change has had so far no significant influence onstorms like the two mentioned. However, all simulations indicate that global warmingcould lead to a marginal increase (0 %–20 %) in the probability of extremehourly winds until the middle of the century, consistent with previousmodelling studies. This excludes other factors, such as surface roughness,aerosols, and decadal variability, which have up to now caused a much largernegative trend. Until these factors are correctly simulated by climatemodels, we cannot give credible projections of future storminess overland in Europe.

Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018