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Variability and long-term climate change in the Baltic Sea region is investigated for the  pre-industrial period of the last millennium. For the first time dynamical downscaling covering  the complete millennium is conducted with a regional climate model in this area. As a result of  changing external forcing conditions, the model simulation shows warm conditions in the first  centuries followed by a gradual cooling until ca. 1700 before temperature increases in the last  centuries. This long-term evolution, with a Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and a Little Ice Age  (LIA), is in broad agreement with proxy-based reconstructions. However, the timing of warm and  cold events is not captured at all times. We show that the regional response to the global climate  anomalies is to a strong degree modified by the large-scale circulation in the model. In  particular, we find that a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) simulated during MCA contributes to enhancing  winter temperatures and precipitation in the region while a negative NAO index in the LIA reduces  them. In a second step, the regional ocean model (RCO-SCOBI) is used to investigate the impact of  atmospheric changes onto the Baltic Sea for two 100 yr time slices representing the MCA and the  LIA. Besides the warming of the Baltic Sea, the water becomes fresher at all levels during the  MCA. This is induced by increased runoff and stronger westerly winds. Moreover, the oxygen  concentrations in the deep layers are slightly reduced during the MCA. Additional sensitivity  studies are conducted to investigate the impact of even higher temperatures and increased nutrient  loads. The presented experiments suggest that changing nutrient loads may be more important  determining oxygen depletion than changes in temperature or dynamic feedbacks

The climate in the Baltic Sea region during the last millennium simulated with a regional climate model