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The two components of the tropical overturning circulation, the meridionalHadley circulation (HC) and the zonal Walker circulation (WC), are key to there-distribution of moisture, heat and mass in the atmosphere. Themid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ∼ 3.3–3 Ma) is considered a veryrough analogue of near-term future climate change, yet changes to thetropical overturning circulations in the mPWP are poorly understood. Here,climate model simulations from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project(PlioMIP) are analyzed to show that the tropical overturning circulations inthe mPWP were weaker than preindustrial circulations, just as they are projected to be infuture climate change. The weakening HC response is consistent with futureprojections, and its strength is strongly related to the meridional gradientof sea surface warming between the tropical and subtropical oceans. Theweakening of the WC is less robust in PlioMIP than in future projections,largely due to inter-model variations in simulated warming of the tropicalIndian Ocean (TIO). When the TIO warms faster (slower) than the tropicalmean, local upper tropospheric divergence increases (decreases) and the WCweakens less (more). These results provide strong evidence that changes tothe tropical overturning circulation in the mPWP and future climate areprimarily controlled by zonal (WC) and meridional (HC) gradients intropical–subtropical sea surface temperatures

Changes to the tropical circulation in the mid-Pliocene and their implications for future climate