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Abstract. Satellite data reveal widespread changes in Earth's vegetation cover. Regionsintensively attended to by humans are mostly greening due to landmanagement. Natural vegetation, on the other hand, is exhibiting patterns ofboth greening and browning in all continents. Factors linked to anthropogeniccarbon emissions, such as CO2 fertilization, climate change, andconsequent disturbances such as fires and droughts, are hypothesized to bekey drivers of changes in natural vegetation. A rigorous regional attributionat the biome level that can be scaled to a global picture of what is behind theobserved changes is currently lacking. Here we analyze different datasets ofdecades-long satellite observations of global leaf area index (LAI,1981–2017) as well as other proxies for vegetation changes and identifyseveral clusters of significant long-term changes. Using process-based modelsimulations (Earth system and land surface models), we disentangle the effectsof anthropogenic carbon emissions on LAI in a probabilistic setting applyingcausal counterfactual theory. The analysis prominently indicates the effectsof climate change on many biomes – warming in northern ecosystems (greening)and rainfall anomalies in tropical biomes (browning). The probabilisticattribution method clearly identifies the CO2 fertilization effect asthe dominant driver in only two biomes, the temperate forests and coolgrasslands, challenging the view of a dominant global-scaleeffect. Altogether, our analysis reveals a slowing down of greening andstrengthening of browning trends, particularly in the last 2 decades. Mostmodels substantially underestimate the emerging vegetation browning,especially in the tropical rainforests. Leaf area loss in these productiveecosystems could be an early indicator of a slowdown in the terrestrialcarbon sink. Models need to account for this effect to realize plausibleclimate projections of the 21st century.

Slowdown of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;

Slowdown of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>