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Changes in plant functional types (PFTs) have importantimplications for both climate and water resources. Still, little is knownabout whether and how PFTs have changed over the past decades on thenorthern Tibetan Plateau (NTP) where several of the top largest rivers inthe world are originated. Also, the relative importance of atmosphericconditions vs. soil physical conditions in affecting PFTs is unknown onthe NTP. In this study, we used the improved Lund–Potsdam–Jena DynamicGlobal Vegetation Model to investigate PFT changes through examining thechanges in foliar projective coverages (FPCs) during 1957–2009 and theirresponses to changes in root zone soil temperature, soil moisture, airtemperature, precipitation and CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations. The results showspatially heterogeneous changes in FPCs across the NTP during 1957–2009,with 34 % (13 %) of the region showing increasing (decreasing) trends.Dominant drivers responsible for the observed FPC changes vary with regionsand vegetation types, but overall, precipitation is the major factor indetermining FPC changes on the NTP with positive impacts. Soil temperatureincrease exhibits small but negative impacts on FPCs. Different responses ofindividual FPCs to regionally varying climate change result in spatiallyheterogeneous patterns of vegetation changes on the NTP. The implication ofthe study is that fresh water resources in one of the world's largest andmost important headwater basins and the onset and intensity of Asian monsooncirculations could be affected because of the changes in FPCs on the NTP

Simulated annual changes in plant functional types and their responses to climate change on the northern Tibetan Plateau