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Recent years have shown an increase in harmful algal blooms in the NorthwestArabian Sea and Gulf of Oman, raising the question of whether climate changewill accelerate this trend. This has led us to examine whether the EarthSystem Models used to simulate phytoplankton productivity accurately capturebloom dynamics in this region – both in terms of the annual cycle andinterannual variability. Satellite data (SeaWIFS ocean color) show twoclimatological blooms in this region, a wintertime bloom peaking in Februaryand a summertime bloom peaking in September. On a regional scale,interannual variability of the wintertime bloom is dominated by cycloniceddies which vary in location from one year to another. Two coarse(1°) models with the relatively complex biogeochemistry (TOPAZ)capture the annual cycle but neither eddies nor the interannual variability.An eddy-resolving model (GFDL CM2.6) with a simpler biogeochemistry(miniBLING) displays larger interannual variability, but overestimates thewintertime bloom and captures eddy-bloom coupling in the south but not inthe north. The models fail to capture both the magnitude of the wintertimebloom and its modulation by eddies in part because of their failure tocapture the observed sharp thermocline and/or nutricline in this region. When CM2.6is able to capture such features in the Southern part of the basin, eddiesmodulate diffusive nutrient supply to the surface (a mechanism notpreviously emphasized in the literature). For the model to simulate theobserved wintertime blooms within cyclones, it will be necessary torepresent this relatively unusual nutrient structure as well as the cycloniceddies. This is a challenge in the Northern Arabian Sea as it requirescapturing the details of the outflow from the Persian Gulf – something thatis poorly done in global models

Challenges in modeling spatiotemporally varying phytoplankton blooms in the Northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman