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Ozone depletion by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was first proposed byMolina and Rowland in their 1974 Nature paper. Since that time, thescientific connection between ozone losses and CFCs and other ozonedepleting substances (ODSs) has been firmly established with laboratorymeasurements, atmospheric observations, and modeling studies. Thisscience research led to the implementation of international agreementsthat largely stopped the production of ODSs. In this study we use afully-coupled radiation-chemical-dynamical model to simulate a futureworld where ODSs were never regulated and ODS production grew at anannual rate of 3%. In this "world avoided" simulation, 17% of theglobally-averaged column ozone is destroyed by 2020, and 67% isdestroyed by 2065 in comparison to 1980. Large ozone depletions in thepolar region become year-round rather than just seasonal as is currentlyobserved in the Antarctic ozone hole. Very large temperature decreasesare observed in response to circulation changes and decreased shortwaveradiation absorption by ozone. Ozone levels in the tropical lowerstratosphere remain constant until about 2053 and then collapse to nearzero by 2058 as a result of heterogeneous chemical processes (ascurrently observed in the Antarctic ozone hole). The tropical coolingthat triggers the ozone collapse is caused by an increase of thetropical upwelling. In response to ozone changes, ultraviolet radiationincreases, more than doubling the erythemal radiation in the northernsummer midlatitudes by 2060

What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated?