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Understanding the impact of atmospheric dynamical variability on observedchanges in stratospheric O3 is a key to understanding how O3 willchange with future climate dynamics and trace gas abundances. In this paperwe examine the linkage between interannual variability in total columnO3 at northern high latitudes in March and lower-to-mid stratosphericvortex O3 in the prior November. We find that these two quantities aresignificantly correlated in the years available from TOMS, SBUV, and POAMdata (1978-2004). Additionally, we find that the increase inMarch O3 variability from the 1980s to years post-1990 is also seen inthe November vortex O3, i.e., interannual variability in bothquantities is much larger in the later years. The cause of thiscorrelation is not clear, however. Interannual variations in March totalO3 are known to correspond closely with variations in winterstratospheric wave driving consistent with the effects of varying residualcirculation, temperature, and chemical loss. Variation in November vortexO3 may also depend on dynamical wave activity, but the dynamics infall are less variable than in winter and spring. We do not find significantcorrelations of dynamic indicators for November such as temperature, heatflux, or polar average total O3 with the November vortex O3, norwith dynamical indicators later in winter and spring that might lead to aconnection to March. We discuss several potential hypotheses for theobserved correlation but do not find strong evidence for any consideredmechanism. We present the observations as a phenomenon whose understandingmay improve our ability to predict the dependence of O3 on changingdynamics and chemistry

Fall vortex ozone as a predictor of springtime total ozone at high northern latitudes