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The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays an important role in the climate\udvariability of the Northern Hemisphere, with significant consequences on\udlong-range pollutant transport. We investigate the evolution of pollutant\udtransport in the 21st century influenced by the NAO under a global climate\udchange scenario. We use a free-running simulation performed by the\udECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model coupled with the ocean general\udcirculation model MPIOM, covering the period from 1950 until 2100. Similarly\udto other works, the model shows a future northeastward shift of the NAO\udcentres of action and a weak positive trend of the NAO index (over\ud150 years). Moreover, we find that NAO trends (computed over periods shorter\udthan 30 years) will continue to oscillate between positive and negative\udvalues in the future. To investigate the NAO effects on transport we consider\udcarbon monoxide tracers with exponential decay and constant interannual\udemissions. We find that at the end of the century, the south-western\udMediterranean and northern Africa will, during positive NAO phases, see\udhigher pollutant concentrations with respect to the past, while a wider part\udof northern Europe will, during positive NAO phases, see lower pollutant\udconcentrations. Such results are confirmed by the changes observed in the\udfuture for tracer concentration and vertically integrated tracer transport,\uddifferentiating the cases of “high NAO” and “low NAO” events

Projection of North Atlantic Oscillation and its effect on tracer transport