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Stratospheric water vapour (SWV) is an important component of the Earth's\udatmosphere as it affects both radiative balance and the chemistry of the\udatmosphere. Key processes driving changes in SWV include dehydration of air\udmasses transiting the cold-point tropopause (CPT) and methane oxidation. We\uduse a chemistry–climate model to simulate changes in SWV through the 21st\udcentury following the four canonical representative concentration pathways\ud(RCPs). Furthermore, we quantify the contribution that methane oxidation\udmakes to SWV following each of the RCPs. Although the methane contribution to\udSWV maximizes in the upper stratosphere, modelled SWV trends are found to be\uddriven predominantly by warming of the CPT rather than by increasing methane\udoxidation. SWV changes by −5 to 60 % (depending on the location in the\udatmosphere and emissions scenario) and increases in the lower stratosphere in\udall RCPs through the 21st century. Because the lower stratosphere is where\udwater vapour radiative forcing maximizes, SWV's influence on surface climate\udis also expected to increase through the 21st century

The role of methane in projections of 21st century stratospheric water vapour