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Three recently-completed sets of simulations of multiple chemistry-climatemodels with greenhouse gases only, with all anthropogenic forcings, and withanthropogenic and natural forcings, allow the causes of observedstratospheric changes to be quantitatively assessed using detection andattribution techniques. The total column ozone response to halogenated ozonedepleting substances and to natural forcings is detectable inobservations, but the total column ozone response to greenhouse gas changes is not separately detectable.In the middle and upper stratosphere, simulated and observed SBUV/SAGE ozonechanges are broadly consistent, and separate anthropogenic and naturalresponses are detectable in observations. The influence of ozone depletingsubstances and natural forcings can also be detected separately in observedlower stratospheric temperature, and the magnitudes of the simulated andobserved responses to these forcings and to greenhouse gas changes are foundto be consistent. In the mid and upper stratosphere the simulated natural andcombined anthropogenic responses are detectable and consistent withobservations, but the influences of greenhouse gases and ozone-depletingsubstances could not be separately detected in our analysis

Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature