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The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic which has claimed thousands of lives over the past 6 months and counting, has resulted in great panic by many worldwide, as the number of death cases is now monotonically growing by the day. This paper isaimed at developing a suitable Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which shall be used to fit a most appropriate model for the daily number of total deaths recorded in ECOWAS that are traceable to the COVID-19 pandemic. We discovered that ARIMA (2, 1, 0) was the most appropriate model for forecasting the number of COVID-19 related deaths recorded in ECOWAS. A forecast of 234 days from 11th May, 2020 to 31th December, 2020, was carried out and we discovered that, the COVID-19 mortality in ECOWAS may likely take a daily upward trend for the next 6 months.

MODELLING AND FORECASTING DAILY MORTALITY RATE OF COVID-19 IN ECOWAS: EVIDENCE FROM ARIMA MODEL