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The Polity index ( -index) has provided a measure of democracy/dictatorship for about 52 independent countries since 1900. For a few countries it goes back even further, and over time about 100 countries have become independent and been added. The index is scaled from 10 for ‘perfect’ democracy to 10 for ‘perfect’ dictatorship. Figure 15.1 shows the average -score for all countries from 1900 to 2003 and for the 52 countries that are covered for most years. For most of the twentieth century, the -index has fluctuated around zero. The 52 old countries of the index are dominated by countries in Europe and the Americas with European culture. The 100 new countries are mostly poorer, and have less democracy. The pattern showed corresponds to our knowledge of a slow increase in democracy in the world. It also shows some well-known crises: the late 1920s and the 1930s represented a swing away from democracy, notably in Europe. In fact, the trend from 1900 to 1972 is of dubious significance, but since then there has been a large increase in democracy in the world. For the whole of the twentieth century, few variables are available for many countries for the whole of the century, so we shall examine only the following three sets of variables:

The Pattern of Democracy in the Twentieth Century: A Study of the Polity Index