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From the standpoint of global population dynamics, the domain of this volume is of indisputable importance. The large set of countries that collectively comprise “Asia” at present contain a majority of the global population (60% in 2015) and this will continue to be the case at mid-century (54% in 2050 according to United Nations projections (United Nations Population Division 2017)). That population levels and trends are heavily determined by levels and trends in fertility is a firmly established demographic truth, indeed fertility stands as one of the three elements in the demographic balancing equation (the other two being mortality and migration). Fertility is fundamental to population dynamics – about this there can be no dispute. Total fertility rates (TFR) are the “headline” figures so often referred to. The variation across the region, as shown in Figure 1.1, is immense (Gietel-Basten 2018). Indeed, one can argue that Asia has some of both the highest and lowest TFRs in the world. But what about fertility desires, the theme of this volume? Should fertility desires be viewed as a central driver of fertility levels and trends, or as an epiphenomenon, i.e. simply a mediating factor through which the more fundamental determinants operate? In fact, these two stances are not incompatible, indeed canonical fertility theory encompasses both. Notably, the influential Easterlin Synthesis Framework (Easterlin 1975) accords considerable determining power to fertility desires but is also explicit that desires serve to mediate the causal effects of cultural, social and economic variables (see also National Academy of Sciences, Panel on Fertility Determinants 1983). More autonomy to fertility desires is posited by Coale in his three preconditions for fertility decline (Coale 1973), and this is the case to an even greater extent in the various “ideational” explanations derived from the empirical research of Coale and his collaborators on the European fertility decline (see, e.g., Lesthaeghe 1983, Watkins 1986, Cleland and Wilson 1987).

Exploring family demography in Asia through the lens of fertility preferences