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In this paper we study the effect of independent variables in identifying non-performing loans during crisis period, using a binomial logistic regression. We use a unique data of 2591 loans granted by one of the four systemic banks of Greece in 2005. Specifically we study a sample of loans granted to micro and small enterprises in order to cover working capital needs. Νon-performing loans dramatically increased as the recession of Greek economy deepens. Moreover we prove that in general the variables still affect in the same way the creation of non-performing loans during the studied period. Particularly, binomial logistic regression shows a positive correlation between non-performing loans and factors “Adverse”, “Age” and “LTT”. In contrast, we find a negative correlation between the probability of classifying a loan as non-performing and the independent variables “Collateral”, “Own Facilities”, “Property”, “Residence” and “Years of operation”. Finally the predicted performance of the binomial logistic regression reduced as the crisis deepens.

What Causes Non-Performing Loans? The Case of Greece Using Primary Accounting Data