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This study investigates the geological background of the August 7-8, 2010 Zhouqu debris flows in the northwestern Chinese province of Gansu, and possible future occurrence of such hazards in the peri-Tibetan Plateau (TP) regions. Debris flows are a more predictable type of landslide be- cause of its strong correlation with extreme precipitation. However, two factors affecting the fre- quency and magnitude of debris flows: very fine scale precipitation and degree of fracture of bed- rock, both defy direct observations. Annual mean Net Primary production (NPP) is used as a sur- rogate for regional precipitation with patchiness filtered out, and gravity satellite measured re- gional mass changes as an indication of bedrock cracking, through the groundwater as the nexus. The GRACE measurements indicate a region (to the north east of TP) of persistent mass gain (started well before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake), likely due to increased groundwater perco- lation. While in the neighboring agricultural region further to the north east, there are signal of decreased fossil water reservoir. The imposed stress fields by large scale increase/decrease groundwater may contribute to future geological instability of this region. Zhouqu locates right on the saddle of the gravity field anomaly. The region surrounding the Bay of Bangle (to the southeast * Corresponding authors.

The Gravity Environment of Zhouqu Debris Flow of August 2010 and Its Implication for Future Recurrence