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Multiple hypotheses/models have been put forward regarding the coolinghistory of the Earth. The search for life beyond Earth has brought these modelsinto a new light as they connect to one of the two energy sources life can tap.The ability to discriminate between different Earth cooling models, and theutility of adopting such models to aid in the assessment of planetaryhabitability, has been hampered by a lack of uncertainty analysis. Thismotivates a layered uncertainty analysis for a range of thermal history modelsthat have been applied to the Earth. The analysis evaluates coupled modelinput, initial condition, and structural uncertainty. Layered modeluncertainty, together with data uncertainty and multiple working hypotheses(another form of uncertainty), means that results must be evaluated in aprobabilistic sense even if the models are deterministic. For the Earth'scooling history uncertainty leads to ambiguity - multiple models, based ondifferent hypotheses, can match data constraints. This has implications forusing such models to forecast conditions for exoplanets that share Earthcharacteristics but are older than the Earth, i.e., it has implications formodeling the long-term life potential of terrestrial planets. Even for the mostEarth-like planet we know of, the Earth itself, model uncertainty and ambiguityleads to large forecast spreads. Given that this comes from the planet with themost data constraints we should expect larger spreads for models of terrestrialplanets in general. The layered uncertainty approach can be expanded bycoupling planetary cooling models to climate models and propagating uncertaintybetween them to assess habitability from a probabilistic versus a binary view.

Layered Uncertainty in Planetary Thermal History Models: Implications for Hypotheses Discrimination and Habitability Modeling