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We report on an observationally constrained analytical model, theINterplanetary Flux ROpe Simulator (INFROS), for predicting the magnetic-fieldvectors of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the interplanetary medium. The mainarchitecture of INFROS involves using the near-Sun flux rope propertiesobtained from the observational parameters that are evolved through the modelin order to estimate the magnetic field vectors of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs)at any heliocentric distance. We have formulated a new approach in INFROS toincorporate the expanding nature and the time-varying axial magneticfield-strength of the flux rope during its passage over the spacecraft. As aproof of concept, we present the case study of an Earth-impacting CME whichoccurred on 2013 April 11. Using the near-Sun properties of the CME flux rope,we have estimated the magnetic vectors of the ICME as intersected by thespacecraft at 1 AU. The predicted magnetic field profiles of the ICME show goodagreement with those observed by the in-situ spacecraft. Importantly, themaximum strength (10.5 $\pm$ 2.5 nT) of the southward component of the magneticfield (Bz) obtained from the model prediction, is in agreement with theobserved value (11 nT). Although our model does not include the prediction ofthe ICME plasma parameters, as a first order approximation it shows promisingresults in forecasting of Bz in near real time which is critical for predictingthe severity of the associated geomagnetic storms. This could prove to be asimple space-weather forecasting tool compared to the time-consuming andcomputationally expensive MHD models.

An Observationally Constrained Analytical Model for Predicting the Magnetic Field Vectors of ICMEs at 1 AU