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Exoplanet catalogs produced by surveys suffer from a lack of completeness(not every planet is detected) and less than perfect reliability (not everyplanet in the catalog is a true planet), particularly near the survey'sdetection limit. Exoplanet occurrence rate studies based on such a catalog mustbe corrected for completeness and reliability. The final Kepler data release,DR25, features a uniformly vetted planet candidate catalog and data productsthat facilitate corrections. We present a new probabilistic approach to thecharacterization of Kepler completeness and reliability, making full use of theKepler DR25 products. We illustrate the impact of completeness and reliabilitycorrections with a Poisson-likelihood occurrence rate method, using a recentstellar properties catalog that incorporates Gaia stellar radii and essentiallyuniform treatment of the stellar population. Correcting for reliability has asignificant impact: the exoplanet occurrence rate for orbital period and radiuswithin 20% of Earth's around GK dwarf stars, corrected for reliability, is0.015+0.011-0.007, whereas not correcting results in 0.034+0.018-0.012 -correcting for reliability reduces this occurrence rate by more than a factorof two. We further show that using Gaia-based vs. DR25 stellar propertiesimpacts the same occurrence rate by a factor of two. We critically examine thethe DR25 catalog and the assumptions behind our occurrence rate method. Wepropose several ways in which confidence in both the Kepler catalog andoccurrence rate calculations can be improved. This work provides an example ofhow the community can use the DR25 completeness and reliability products.

A Probabilistic Approach to Kepler Completeness and Reliability for Exoplanet Occurrence Rates