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. GCM      HadGEM2-AO     RCP   . ArcSWAT  1988 2011                      92.25%, 95.40%      .         RCP4.5    47.76%, RCP8.5    36.52%         .       KModSim       .  95%    , RCP4.5      $9.41m^3/s$ , $24.82m^3/s$    RCP8.5   $6.48m^3/s$ , $21.08m^3/s$      . 【In this study, water supply for Geum River Basin was calculated by regulating the future water supply of Dam with the future expected discharges. HadGEM2-AO, which is the climate change prediction model that KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) recently introduced was used for this study. The data of weather stations within the Geum River basin was extracted with the new Greenhouse Gas RCP scenario. The runoff of Geum river basin was simulated using the ArcSWAT for the 1988~2010 period. After validating the model, the similarity of results between simulation and observation at the Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam was 92.25% and 95.40%, respectively, which shows a good agreement with observed data. As the result of analysis for the discharges, the discharges would increase 47.76% under the RCP4.5 scenario and 36.52% under the RCP8.5 scenario. Water balance analysis was conducted by the KModSim for predicting the water supply under the runoff variation. We analyzed the volume of water intake with national standard of water supply 95% by Dam Operation Manual. By the analysis under RCP4.5 scenario, $9.41m^3/s$ , $24.82m^3/s$ of additional water supply is available on Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam. By the analysis under the RCP8.5 scenario, $6.48m^3/s$ , $21.08m^3/s$ of additional water supply is available on Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam.】

Water Supply Change Outlook for Geum River Basin Considering RCP Climate Change Scenario