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Appropriate open defecation free (ODF) sustainability interventions are key to further mobilise communities to consume sanitation and hygiene products and services that enhance household’s quality of life and embed household behavioural change for heathier communities. This study aims to develop a logistic regression derived risk algorithm to estimate a 12-month ODF slippage risk and externally validate the model in an independent data set. ODF slippage occurs when one or more toilet adequacy parameters are no longer present for one or more toilets in a community. Data in the Zambia district health information software for water sanitation and hygiene management information system for Chungu and Chabula chiefdoms was used for the study. The data was retrieved from the date of chief Chungu and Chabula chiefdoms' attainment of ODF status in October 2016 for 12 months until September 2017 for the development and validation data sets respectively. Data was assumed to be missing completely at random and the complete case analysis approach was used. The events per variables were satisfactory for both the development and validation data sets. Multivariable regression with a backwards selection procedure was used to decide candidate predictor variables with p < 0.05 meriting inclusion. To correct for optimism, the study compared amount of heuristic shrinkage by comparing the model’s apparent C-statistic to the C- statistic computed by nonparametric bootstrap resampling. In the resulting model, an increase in the covariates ‘months after ODF attainment’, ‘village population’ and ‘latrine built after CLTS’, were all associated with a higher probability of ODF slippage. Conversely, an increase in the covariate ‘presence of a handwashing station with soap’, was associated with reduced probability of ODF slippage. The predictive performance of the model was improved by the heuristic shrinkage factor of 0.988. The external validation confirmed good prediction performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85 and no significant lack of fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test: p = 0.246). The results must be interpreted with caution in regions where the ODF definitions, culture and other factors are different from those asserted in the study.

Development and external validation of a logistic regression derived algorithm to estimate a 12-month post open defecation free slippage risk