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Quick Response Code Abstract: Chengdu and Kunming are two spatially close cities located in West China. We argue that similar macro-regulative policies, close geographical, historical, and trade ties, may not only produce significant short-run dynamics but also lead to a long-term equilibrium between housing markets in neighboring cities. This paper aims to study the interactions between Chengdu and Kunming's new home markets. Data were monthly home price indices over the period from January 2006 to December 2015. We tested for unit root using the ADF, PP, and ERS-DF-GLS tests and the Perron test. We tested for cointegration by driving the Johansen trace test. Also, we tested for weak exogeneity and Granger causality and estimated ECMs. We found a long-run relationship between Chengdu and Kunming's new home markets. Bi-directional causal effects or a feedback effect between the two markets was indicated. The short-run (in four months) elasticity of home price in Kunming relative to that in Chengdu was about 0.27. The short-run (in two months) elasticity of home price in Chengdu relative to that in Kunming was about 0.37. The short-run dynamics may have facilitated the formation of the long-run relation. Across-city portfolios are difficult to gain. Shocks like the RMB Four Trillion Investment Plan initiating from 2009 may have changed home price trends.

Dynamics between Chengdu and Kunming’s New Home Markets