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The purpose of the research is to develop methodological bases and principles for assessing the socio-demographic (including migration) consequences of man-made disasters. A method of rapid assessment of possible outgoing migration flows that may occur in the event of a man-made emergency of various scales is proposed. The initial data for this method are quantitative statistical register data on housing stock and population, as well as operational data on the scale of destruction obtained using contactless methods of information collection. The author summarizes the legal acts regulating the work on prevention and elimination of consequences of man-made and other emergencies in Russia, as well as establishing the principles for assessing their consequences. The author proposes a rearrangement of the set of consequences of manmade disasters, including three main directions of the impact of emergency situations on various spheres: demographic (including damage to life and health, as well as the migration component), socio-economic, and natural and environmental. Indicators reflecting the consequences of the disaster have been developed for each of the Аннотация Цель исследования состоит в разработке методологических оснований и принципов оценки социально-демографических (в том числе миграционных) последствий техногенных катастроф. Предлагается методика оперативной оценки возможных исходящих миграционных потоков, которые могут возникнуть в случае разворачивания техногенной чрезвычайной ситуации различного масштаба. В качестве исходных данных для данной методики выступают количественные статистические реестровые данные о жилом фонде и численности населения, а также оперативные данные о масштабах разрушений, полученные благодаря использованию бесконтактных методов сбора информации. Обобщены нормативно-правовые акты, регламентирующие работу по предотвращению и ликвидации последствий техногенных и других чрезвычайных ситуаций в России, а также устанавливающие принципы оценки их последствий. Предложена перегруппировка множества последствий техногенных катастроф, включающая три основных направления воздействия чрезвычайных ситуаций на различные сферы: 101 Candidate of economic Sciences, senior research fellow at the Center for social demography of the Institute for socio-political research – a separate division of the Federal research sociological center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISPI FNISC RAS) Moscow, Russia. 102 Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Prof., Director of Institute of Socio-Political Research FCTAS RAS, Moscow, Russia. 103 Candidate of economic Sciences, Leading researcher, Center for Social Demography, Institute of Socio-Political Research FCTAS RAS, Moscow, Russia. 104 Junior researcher, Center for Social Demography, Institute of Socio-Political Research FCTAS RAS, Moscow, Russia.

Methodological bases for assessing socio-demographic and migration consequences of man-made disasters