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This study assesses how the initial economic context of a country functions as a factor in the progression of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. To do so, we analyze Chile during the first wave of the pandemic. Chile is a developing country that suffered an unprecedented social disturbance (the Social Outbreak) that deteriorated economic activity and increased unemployment just months before the pandemic begun. We empirically test the hypothesis that the previous deterioration in the labor market, as an indicator of economic deterioration at the beginning of the pandemic, impacted the infection rate. Our results show a positive and significant relationship between unemployment prior to the pandemic at a provincial level and the number of individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2. All in all, we provide evidence that the initial social and socioeconomic conditions of each territory must be considered in the design of any policy aimed at minimizing the effects of the pandemic.

The Initial Labor Market Conditions in Developing Economies as a Factor in Understanding the Progression of SARS-CoV-2: The Case of Chile