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The uncertain output of variable renewables adds significant challenges to the generation of affordable, reliable, and sustainable power sources in a country or region. Therefore, we propose a new stochastic nonlinear multi-objective model to optimize the power generation structure in 31 provinces of China. Considering variable renewable integration, we use Monte Carlo simulation to describe the randomness and uncertainty of renewable power output. The learning curve in the exponential expression is used to describe the nonlinear relationship between generation cost and installed capacity. The optimized results show that China can substitute fossil power with clean power. Renewable power will account for more than 42% of total power in the optimal power generation structure in 2040. In particular, the annual average growth rate of non-hydro renewable generation is expected to be 12.06%, with solar photovoltaic (PV) power growing the most by 17.95%. The share of renewable power exceeds that of thermal power in 14 provinces, and PV power represents the highest proportion at 30.21%. Reducing transmission capacity can promote the development of advantageous power in each region, such as wind power in the Northwest region and PV power in the South region, with the share increasing by 36.33% and 132.59%, respectively.

A Stochastic Multi-Objective Model for China’s Provincial Generation-Mix Planning: Considering Variable Renewable and Transmission Capacity