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United States Air Force (USAF) operations are greatly influenced and impacted by environmental conditions. Since 2004, USAF has researched, developed, operationalized, and refined numerical weather prediction ensembles to provide improved environmental information for mission success and safety. This article reviews how and why USAF capabilities evolved in the context of USAF requirements and limitations. The convergence of time-lagged convection-allowing ensembles with inline diagnostics, algorithms to estimate the sub-grid scale uncertainty of critical forecasting variables, and the distillation of large quantities of ensemble information into decision-relevant products has led to the acceptance of probabilistic environmental forecast information and widespread reliance on ensembles in USAF operations worldwide.

A Review of Operational Ensemble Forecasting Efforts in the United States Air Force