English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Objectives:  To understand and forecast the evolution of COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) in Chile, and analyze alternative simulated scenarios to better predict alternative paths, in order to implement policy solutions to stop the spread and minimize damage.   Methods:  We have specified a novel multi-parameter generalized logistic growth model, which does not only look at the trend of the data, but also includes explanatory covariates, using a quasi-Poisson regression specification to account for overdispersion of the count data. We fitted our model to data from the onset of the disease (February 28) until September 15. Estimating the parameters from our model, we predicted the growth of the epidemic for the evolution of the disease until the end of October 2020. We also evaluated via simulations different fictional scenarios for the outcome of alternative policies (those analyses are included in the  Supplementary Material ).   Results and Conclusions:  The evolution of the disease has not followed an exponential growth, but rather, stabilized and moved downward after July 2020, starting to increase again after the implementation of the  Step-by-Step  policy. The lockdown policy implemented in the majority of the country has proven effective in stopping the spread, and the lockdown-relaxation policies, however gradual, appear to have caused an upward break in the trend.

Forecasting the 2020 COVID-19 Epidemic: A Multivariate Quasi-Poisson Regression to Model the Evolution of New Cases in Chile