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Novel therapeutic approaches for treating inherited retinal degenerations (IRDs) prompt a need to understand which patients with impaired vision have the anatomical potential to gain from participation in a clinical trial. We used supervised machine learning to predict foveal function from foveal structure in blue cone monochromacy (BCM), an X-linked congenital cone photoreceptor dysfunction secondary to mutations in the  OPN1LW/OPN1MW  gene cluster. BCM patients with either disease-associated large deletion or missense mutations were studied and results compared with those from subjects with other forms of IRD and various degrees of preserved central structure and function. A machine learning technique was used to associate foveal sensitivities and best-corrected visual acuities to foveal structure in IRD patients. Two random forest (RF) models trained on IRD data were applied to predict foveal function in BCM. A curve fitting method was also used and results compared with those of the RF models. The BCM and IRD patients had a comparable range of foveal structure. IRD patients had peak sensitivity at the fovea. Machine learning could successfully predict foveal sensitivity (FS) results from segmented or un-segmented optical coherence tomography (OCT) input. Application of machine learning predictions to BCM at the fovea showed differences between predicted and measured sensitivities, thereby defining treatment potential. The curve fitting method provided similar results. Given a measure of visual acuity (VA) and foveal outer nuclear layer thickness, the question of how many lines of acuity would represent the best efficacious result for each BCM patient could be answered. We propose that foveal vision improvement potential in BCM is predictable from retinal structure using machine learning and curve fitting approaches. This should allow estimates of maximal efficacy in patients being considered for clinical trials and also guide decisions about dosing.

Foveal Therapy in Blue Cone Monochromacy: Predictions of Visual Potential From Artificial Intelligence