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Pada kajian ini dilakukan evaluasi penggunaan beberapa skema konvektif pada model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) untuk prediksi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia. Terdapat tiga skema konvektif yang akan dievaluasi yaitu; skema konvektif cumulus BMJ (Betts Miller Janjic), KF (Kain Fritsch), dan GD (Grell 3D ensemble). Data yang digunakan untuk evaluasi adalah data curah hujan per 3 jam dan data angin per 12 jam (level ketinggian; permukaan, 850, 500, 250 mb) dari hasil pengolahan model WRF dan observasi selama periode bulan Agustus 2011 dan Februari 2012 di stasiun Juanda-Surabaya dan Cengkareng-Jakarta. Hasil verifikasi dari tiga skema konvektif pada model WRF terhadap data observasi menunjukkan bahwa untuk prakiraan curah hujan, penggunaan skema konvektif BMJ lebih baik dari skema KF dan GD, dan untuk prakiraan arah dan kecepatan angin skema BMJ dan GD relatif lebih baik dari skema KF. Berdasarkan analisis hasil verifikasi yang diperoleh, pemilihan skema konvektif cumulus BMJ cenderung lebih baik dari skema konvektif KF dan GD untuk di aplikasikan pada model WRF. In this study, the use of some convective schemes on the model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) for weather prediction in the Indonesian region has been evaluated. There are two models evaluated; BMJ cumulus convective scheme (Betts Miller Janjic), KF (Kain Fritsch), and GD (Grell 3D ensemble). The data used in the evaluation are the 3 hourly rainfall data and the 12 hourly wind data (level height; surface, 850, 500, 250mb) from the WRF models and observation processing during August 2011 and February 2012 period at the Juanda-Surabaya and Cengkareng-Jakarta stations. The results of the verification of the three convective schemes in WRF models against observation data indicate that for precipitation forecasts, the application of the BMJ convective scheme is better than the KF and GD schemes, and for direction and wind speed forecast, BMJ and GD schemes are relatively better than the KF scheme. Based on the analysis of the verification results obtained, the selection of the BMJ cumulus convective scheme tends to be better than GD and KF convective scheme to be applied to WRF models.

PENGGUNAAN SKEMA KONVEKTIF MODEL CUACA WRF (BETTS MILLER JANJIC, KAIN FRITSCH DAN GRELL 3D ENSEMBLE) (Studi kasus: Surabaya dan Jakarta)