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The objective of this paper is to give an estimation of drugs supply disruptive risks, which lead to a shortage. The literature analysis showed 15 drivers of supply disruptions and also, three main categories of risks (delays, forecasts and inventory), which produce a negative effect from what was intended; the return to low utilisation of supply service. These disruptions mean that if all required is not in place, shortage appears. There is a lack of knowledge of effects examination because not that many studies have been carried out from the perspective of drugs shortage. The study consists of two parts. The first part is dedicated to methods applicable for risks analysis, whereas the second one is dedicated to practical risks assessment and shortage analysis. The scope of disruption risks is limited in the paper and includes non-systematic risks (i.e., micro risks). Based on approximation data, the author has constructed a methodology for the identification of products, which face a higher risk to have shortage and a probability of getting it. The case analysis of Lithuania for drug shortage in the period 2018 is presented.

A Review of Drugs Supply Disruption Risks and Effects that Lead to Shortage