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Probability (Markov) matrices and graphical analysis suggest that inclusion of mean summer temperature (Dec - Feb) significantly improves predictions of grass grub (Costelytra zealandica) outbreaks in Canterbury based on current density and disease levels. Outbreaks tend not to occur (7% chance) following a warm/dry summer. If the summer is cool, outbreaks are most likely if the density is currently high (irrespective of disease), or if both the current density and the disease level are low (43% chance if any of these conditions are met). The fact that high current density is one of the predisposing conditions suggests that with favourable summers, grub densities may stay high for more than one year or at least decline only slowly from very high levels.

proceedings of the new zealand weed and pest control conference/new zealand plant protection/proceedings of the ... national weeds conference/proceedings of the new zealand weed control conference/proceedings of the new zealand plant protection conference

Predicting Canterbury grass grub outbreaks: the role of temperature