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Two methods for timing pre-infection protective sprays for apple black spot management, infection period forecasts (IPFs) and rain probability forecasts (RPFs), were compared for their ability to predict infection periods (IPs) identified by an apple black spot infection model from September-December. For RPFs, 88% (1993) and 81% (1994) of recorded IPs were correctly forecast, but 58% and 81% of the forecasts falsely predicted that IPs would occur when they did not. For IPFs, 81%, 29% and 100% of recorded IPs were correctly forecast in 1993, 1994 and 1995 and only 28%, 20% and 29% falsely predicted IPs when none occurred. IPFs were considered more useful than RPFs because of less overprediction, although the ability of IPFs to correctly predict IPs varied between years. In a field trial in 1993-94, a pre-infection protective fungicide programme, where sprays were timed using IPFs, gave as good control of black spot, with three fewer sprays, as an ‘industry-standard’ programme. In 1994-95, an IP-based programme which combined pre-infection spraying using IPFs, with post-infection curative fungicides after monitored IPs, gave equivalent disease control, using up to six fewer sprays, to a standard programme.

proceedings of the new zealand weed and pest control conference/new zealand plant protection/proceedings of the ... national weeds conference/proceedings of the new zealand weed control conference/proceedings of the new zealand plant protection conference

Infection period forecasting for improved apple black spot management in Hawke's Bay