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One way the government determines the level of welfare of farmers is to look at the development of the farmers' exchange rate index. Farmer exchange rate index (NTP) is useful in determining, measuring the ability to exchange products sold by farmers with products needed by farmers in household production and consumption. This study produced an estimate of 4 (four) years ahead from the farmer subsector index of the exchange rate index while the data was obtained from Official News published monthly by the Central Sumatra Provincial Statistics Agency (BPS). The estimation of the farmer exchange rate index will use the backpropagation algorithm, as one algorithm that is quite accurate in estimating and predicting. The problem in this study was that there was a decrease in the percentage of the farmers' exchange rate index of the food crop sub-sector in 2017 which caused a decline in the level of welfare index of farmers in the food crop subsector. This study uses 5 architectural models, that is 3-7-1, 3-15-1, 3-20-1, 3-28-1,3-40-1. Of the 5 architectures, the best is the 3-28-1 architectural model producing an epoch of 7060 with the time needed 01:19 seconds.

Estimasi Nilai Tukar Petani Subsektor Tanaman Pangan Menggunakan JST pada Provinsi Sumatera Utara