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Maintaining electrical generation assets to meet peak demand increases the cost of providing electricity to a country’s buildings and insufficient assets can result in power outages. In order to keep reliable electricity costs low for consumers and demand charges low for utilities, there exist markets and financial incentives for limiting consumption during peak demand. The team has partnered with an electrical distributor servicing a 1,390 km area and 178,368 buildings with the aim of using urban-scale building energy modelling to inform business decisions necessary for the operation of their electric grid. A suite of software has been developed that allows the scalable creation of a “digital twin” for all buildings in the utility’s service area. This virtual utility area is analysed for targeted deployment of new technologies or policies to assess building-specific savings, effects on critically-loaded grid infrastructure (e.g. feeders, substations), and aggregated impact to utility-scale operations. This work leverages 15-minute data from each building to compare actual and simulated monthly peak-hour demand and assessment of the load factor for each building. Findings include market characterization via clustering of relative energy use profiles for ~180,000 buildings as well as simulation-informed savings opportunities indicating residential load factors of 0.17, commercial load factors of 0.2-0.4 depending on year of construction, and general load factors of 0.16-0.5 depending on building type.

Nailing the Peak: City-Scale, Building-Specific Load Factor and Contribution to a Utility’s Hour of Critical Generation