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O presente trabalho considera as relacoes entre a sazonalidade climatica regional e a producao de frutos de acai representativa de 30 municipios do Estado do Para durante um periodo de 9 anos (2003 a 2011). Os testes parametricos de correlacao de Pearson determinaram que o regime do periodo chuvoso (meses de Dezembro a Maio) associa-se a alta produtividade de frutos de acai, enquanto que o periodo seco (Junho a Novembro) relaciona-se com baixa produtividade de frutos de acai. Alem disso, foram investigadas as estimativas climaticas na producao de frutos de acai levando em conta os cenarios futuros a partir dos resultados de um modelo de regressao linear tendo como variaveis preditoras: precipitacao, temperatura e umidade atmosferica, fornecidos pelo modelo global HadGEM2 do IPCC (1979-2032), observou-se que a produtividade de frutos de acai (kg/ha) tende sofrer mudancas significativas nos proximos 15 anos (2017 a 2032). A  B  S  T  R  A  C  T The present work considers the relationship between the regional climatic seasonality and acai fruits production, representative of 30 cities of Para during a period of 9 years (2003 to 2011). The Parametric tests of Pearson correlations determined such as the regime of rainy period (months of December to May) is associated to the high productivity of acai fruits, while the regime of dry period (June to November) relates with low productivity of acai fruits. Moreover, it was investigated the climatic estimative on production of acai fruits taking into account the future scenarios. Through the results of a linear regression model using as predictors variables: precipitation, temperature and humidity provided by HadGEM2 global model of IPCC (1979-2032), it is observed that the productivity of acai fruits (kg/ha) tend to suffer significative changes in the next 15 years (2017 to 2032). Keywords: climatology, future scenarios, seasonality, regression, Euterpe oleracea Mart.

revista brasileira de geografia física

Estimativa climática sazonal da produtividade de açaí (Euterpe oleracea mart.) no Estado do Pará - cenários futuros (Climatic seasonal estimative over the productivity of açaí (Euterpe oleracea Mart,) at State of the Pará – future scenarios)