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The unemployment rate has always been a focal point of discussions about the state of the economy because it provides a timely measure of the overall health of the labor market, and hence aggregate economic activity. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, many researchers, analysts, and policymakers have taken a keener interest in the unemployment rate not only as a gauge of current economic conditions, but also as a variable of interest for forecasting.

Forecasting Unemployment in Real Time during the Great Recession: An Elusive Task