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espanolEn diversos estudios es necesario determinar la magnitud de caudales extremos en un rio. Disponiendo de un adecuado registro historico de caudales es posible ajustar una funcion de densidad de probabilidad (fdp) que permita estimar eventos asociados con un alto periodo de retorno (i.e. 100 anos). En cuencas no- instrumentadas, como son la mayoria de cuencas en el mundo, se recurre a otras metodologias como por ejemplo el Hidrograma Unitario Sintetico propuesto por el Servicio de Conservacion de Suelos – USA (HU- SCS). Se evaluo el modelo HU-SCS en cuencas del departamento Norte de Santander (COL), en su capacidad para estimar caudales extremos, y explorar su posible regionalizacion. La evaluacion se realiza mediante la comparacion de estimaciones de Q100, mediante el metodo de Factores de Frecuencia y el modelo HU-SCS. Series temporales de caudal y precipitacion se obtuvieron de la red IDEAM, seleccionando 19 cuencas en funcion de su area de drenaje, densidad de estaciones climatologicas y longitud del registro, caracterizadas geomorfologicamente utilizando ArcMap™ sobre el modelo digital de elevacion ASTER-GDEM. Utilizando informacion disponible sobre geologia, suelos, cobertura vegetal, y asumiendo una condicion antecedente de suelo humeda (AMC-III) se obtuvieron valores de la mediana del error relativo Q100 (e-Q100) de +507% y +406%, para las fdp Gumbel y Log-Pearson. Para una condicion antecedente de suelo seca (AMC-I) e-Q100 bajo a +36% y +17%. Fue posible minimizar e-Q100 mediante calibracion del parametro Numero de Curva (CN). No se encontro una funcion de regionalizacion satisfactoria para CN. Aplicando SCS-HU para condicion AMC-III se sobreestima en gran medida el Q100. Es posible minimizar el error al considerar AMC-I y reducir CN, situacion contra-intuitiva pues caudales extremos se asocian con condiciones meteorologicas humedas (i.e. Ano Nina). Se debe investigar mejoras en la caracterizacion de la lluvia y suelos en Norte de Santander EnglishIn several studies it is necessary to determine the magnitude of extreme flows in a river. Having an adequate register of observed discharge it is possible to adjust a probability density function (fdp) that allows estimating events associated with a high return period (i.e. 100 years). In ungauged basins, such as the majority of basins in the world are, other methodologies are used, such as the Synthetic Unity Hydrograph proposed by the United State Soil Conservation Service (UH-SCS). The UH-SCS model was evaluated in watersheds of the Norte de Santander department (COL), in its capacity to estimate extreme flows, and to explore its possible regionalization. The evaluation is done by comparing estimates of Q100, using the Frequency Factors method and the UH-SCS model. Discharge and precipitation time series were obtained from the IDEAM network, selecting 19 basins based on their drainage area, climatological stations density and records length. Geomorphology was characterized using ArcMap™ on the ASTER-GDEM digital elevation model. Using information available on geology, soils, vegetation cover, and assuming a wet antecedent moisture condition (AMC-III), values of the median of relative Q100 error (e-Q100) of + 507% and + 406% were obtained for the fdp Gumbel and Log-Pearson. Using dry antecedent moisture condition (AMC-I) e-Q100 low to + 36% and + 17%. It was possible to minimize e-Q100 by calibrating the Curve Number (CN) parameter. A satisfactory regionalization function for CN was not found. Applying SCS-HU under AMC-III condition, Q100 is greatly overestimated. It is possible to minimize the error by considering AMC-I and reduce CN, a counter-intuitive situation since extreme flows are associated with wet weather conditions (i.e. Ano Nina). Improvements in the characterization of rainfall and soils in Norte de Santander should be investigated.

Evaluation of SCS - unit hydrograph model to estimate peak flows in watersheds of Norte de Santander