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This paper seeks evidence of the relationship between economic cycles and property crimes in a quasi-experiment generated by the shipbuilding industry installed in the Brazilian city of Rio Grande (RS) from the year 2006. For this purpose, it uses structural time series models estimated by the Kalman Filter to decompose and to identify structural breaks in the thefts and robberies monthly registered in the municipality between January 2002 and December 2015. The results indicate the existence of structural breaks both in thefts and robberies that may be associated with the changes generated in the economy due to the implementation of the shipbuilding industry. The paper provides evidence that the start of construction of the P-53 platform coincide with 80 monthly thefts while that the construction of the P-55 platform coincide with the reduction in 62 monthly robberies registered in the municipality. The paper concludes that there is evidence of a motivation effect in which the improvement in the economic conditions of the municipality was able to generate deterrence effects that reduced the property crimes.

CICLOS ECONÔMICOS E CRIMES CONTRA O PATRIMÔNIO: UMA ANÁLISE QUASE-EXPERIMENTAL