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An analysis of the 2004 presidential election results indicates that President Bushs relatively narrow victory reflected the normal advantage of incumbency and preexisting divisions within the American electorate rather than a fundamental shift in the partisan or ideological loyalties of the electorate. There was little change in the publics attitudes toward Mr. Bush or the political parties during the campaign and gay marriage referenda had no discernible impact on either voter turnout or support for the President. However, Mr. Bush did somewhat better than expected in the states most directly affected by the September 11th terrorist attacks.

Terrorism, Gay Marriage, and Incumbency: Explaining the Republican Victory in the 2004 Presidential Election